[Si sta svolgendo un franco dibattito sul forum di QuantNet, un sito di ingegneria della finanza molto noto a livello internazionale per essere frequentato da studenti che poi diverranno traders o banchieri, e sono contento di contribuire non tanto per spirito patriottico ma per amor di logica e dei macrofenomeni. Riporto 4 punti che inquadrano il problema Eurobond per come lo vedo io. GiusCo]
Fundamentally it’s politics, not economies.
1- Giving up autonomy to Eurocrats is scary but in terms of globalization we need the macrozone to remain competitive. That’s why I can’t see isolation/separation doing well or any war. Simply put, we Europeans will become poorer and more redistribution will happen, both internally (towards the PIGS) and externally (towards the BRICs and the emerging countries). I can’t see who is going to break that actually (Germany pensioners? To go where to?).
2- As for the UK, if not Europe they will be de facto the 51st American State (as they are actually doing) or aspirationally (and better from many points of view) lead a new sort of Commonwealth. In any case, the Kingdom needs to be part of something bigger or it will be crushed by globalization: devaluation of pound is happening fast and their fundamentals (debt, unemployment, GDP / deficit ratio) are now nearer to Italy than Germany. In addition, there is not a new North Sea to be exploited.
3- Italy is the deciding factor these days and we actually like EU because it makes big decisions for us. We have borrowed time again with the latest mid August humming but the markets are putting us in the line again. Well done, just hit hard enough without killing the baby please.
4- To finish, we are purpotedly forgetting that the real problem is the US debt and that the big game is into its early stage yet. Their financial hubs can kill Euros as a diversive, but the real problem is still theirs: a big, overwhelming pile of debt owned to Mr Jiabao. So it is not European states that will look for a war: it will be actually Mr America, the day He will be told to stop living in the bubble and repay the debt.
I also think that most of the recent excesses from the financial world must and will be reduced by more stringent regulation. Resigning sovereignty to plutocrats is not where mature democracies were intended to go.
As citizens (not numbers or productivity units), we are just fighting our war to keep the status gained with many difficulties in the last two centuries. Poorer maybe, not slaves again.
This bullying farce commanding austerity to entire countries cannot go on for long: sooner or later, some leading politician will just tell that it is a colossal joke, as it is. And I think our Sultan Silvio, the ruined trickster of Europe, is very tempted to do so in a flagrant way.